paul, does anyone really know what the size of the global arms trade is and just how much of that is illegal? >> it's a very good question, very difficult to answer. some states do provide information about the financial value of their arms sales but this effort makes it a challenge to say a definite figure of how much the global arms trade amounts to. we estimate at least $50 billion but could be much more. in terms of how much of that is illegal, as we're discussing here in the u.n. niece next two weeks, we're hopeful we'll have a much clearer definition at the moment the u.n. arms embargo is decided by the security council and the laws and regulations that define what is legal or illegal in regards to the national arms trade. >> you talk about the meeting at the u.n. we know the u.n. arms treaty has been delayed before. how confident are you the countries involved will come to any kind of significant agreement this time around? >> i think it's a challenge but i think one of the big clouds of july, that the presidential elections here in the u.s. has been lifted. and i think the u.